Sportsbook market report: September 2026
How US sportsbooks priced NBA and NFL markets, and how their player prop lines did against the box score. This edition is fixed: the numbers are the season to date at the end of September 2026 and will not change.
Key numbers
- NFL: 685 player props graded since 2026-09-27; 50.5% went over and 49.5% went under the consensus closing line.
- NFL: average player prop margin ran from 5.86% at DraftKings to 7.11% at BetRivers.
NFL: margin by sportsbook
The overround: both sides' implied chances at the book's closing prices, added up, minus 100%, averaged over its lines. A -110/-110 market is 4.76%. Lower is cheaper for the bettor. Props are weighted by the number of lines in each stat.
| Sportsbook | Moneyline | Spread | Total | Player props | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | – | – | – | 5.86% | 707 |
| FanDuel | – | – | – | 6.42% | 522 |
| BetMGM | – | – | – | 7.07% | 378 |
| BetRivers | – | – | – | 7.11% | 370 |
NFL: player props, over or under?
"Priced over" is the market's own chance of the over at the consensus closing line: each book's two prices with the margin removed, the median across books, averaged per stat. When overs land less often than priced, the closing line was set a little high for that stat. Small gaps are within normal variation for samples this size.
| Stat | Lines | Over | Under | Priced over |
|---|
Cite this report
You are welcome to quote any number on this page with a link back. The edition never changes, so the link stays accurate.
Oddsloft, "Sportsbook market report: September 2026", September 30, 2026, https://oddsloft.com/research/market/2026-09
Oddsloft. (2026, September 30). Sportsbook market report: September 2026. https://oddsloft.com/research/market/2026-09
<a href="https://oddsloft.com/research/market/2026-09"><img src="https://oddsloft.com/og/research/market/2026-09.png" alt="Sportsbook market report: September 2026: NFL player props went over 50.5% of the time (685 lines)" width="600" height="315" loading="lazy"></a> <p>Source: <a href="https://oddsloft.com/research/market/2026-09">Oddsloft</a></p>
Method
Prices are archived from US-licensed sportsbooks up to the start of each game; exchanges and prediction markets are left out. For every player and stat, the consensus closing line is the line most books closed on (on a tie, the one nearest their median, so always a real line). Each prop is graded against the official box score; a player who did not play leaves his line void. Only finished games count. A stat needs 200 graded lines and a book 30 lines to be shown. Full details: methodology. Related: which sportsbook charges the most vig, do prop overs or unders hit more, hold vs vig.
Other editions: October 2026.