Hold vs vig: what sportsbook margin really costs you
Vig (or juice) is the margin a sportsbook builds into its prices. There are two common ways to measure it. Overround is how far the implied probabilities add up above 100%. Hold is the share of all money staked that the book keeps if action is balanced. For a standard -110/-110 market, the overround is 4.76% and the hold is 4.55%. Both describe the same margin.
Want the real numbers? We measured the margin at US sportsbooks on NBA and NFL game lines and player props: sportsbook vig by book and market. To strip the margin from any two prices, use the no-vig calculator.
Three terms, one margin
- Vig / juice: the general name for the margin. Not a precise number on its own.
- Overround: S − 1, where S is the sum of the implied probabilities of all outcomes. Our vig table reports margins this way.
- Theoretical hold: 1 − 1/S. The share of total stakes the book keeps if bets come in so that it pays the same amount whichever side wins.
- Actual hold: what a sportsbook really kept as a share of handle (all money bet) over a period, after paying winners. It depends on results and the bet mix.
Hold is always a little smaller than overround, because it divides the same margin by a bigger number: the total staked rather than the fair total.
How to compute hold from two prices
- Convert each price to implied probability. Negative odds: odds / (odds + 100), using the number without the minus sign. Positive odds: 100 / (odds + 100). See implied probability.
- Add them. Call the sum S.
- Overround = S − 1.
- Hold = 1 − 1/S.
- Fair (no-vig) chance of each side = its implied probability / S.
The -110/-110 example, step by step
- Each side implies 110 / 210 = 52.38%.
- S = 52.38% + 52.38% = 104.76%, so the overround is 4.76%.
- Hold = 1 − 1 / 1.0476 = 4.55%.
The cash version makes it concrete. Two bettors each stake $110, one on each side. The book takes in $220. The winner gets back $210 (the $110 stake plus $100 profit). The book keeps $10. $10 / $220 = 4.55%. That is the hold. The overround compares the same $10 with the $210 paid out: $10 / $210 = 4.76%.
Unequal prices: -150 / +130
Moneylines rarely sit at the same price on both sides. The method is the same.
- -150 implies 150 / 250 = 60.00%. +130 implies 100 / 230 = 43.48%.
- S = 103.48%. Overround 3.48%. Hold = 1 − 1 / 1.0348 = 3.36%.
- Fair chances: favorite 60.00 / 103.48 = 57.98%, underdog 42.02%.
Balanced action here means $60 on the favorite and $43.48 on the underdog. Either way the book pays out $100, keeps $3.48 of the $103.48 taken in, and that is 3.36%.
Margin by price, at a glance
Illustrative prices, computed with the steps above.
| Prices | Sum of implied | Overround | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|
| -105 / -105 | 102.44% | 2.44% | 2.38% |
| -150 / +130 | 103.48% | 3.48% | 3.36% |
| -115 / -105 | 104.71% | 4.71% | 4.50% |
| -110 / -110 | 104.76% | 4.76% | 4.55% |
| -130 / +100 | 106.52% | 6.52% | 6.12% |
| -120 / -110 | 106.93% | 6.93% | 6.48% |
What the margin costs you
If the no-vig probabilities are the true chances, your expected loss per dollar is the same on either side, and it equals the hold. At -110/-110, a $100 bet on a true 50/50 game has an expected value of 0.50 × $90.91 − 0.50 × $100 = −$4.55.
It adds up. Over 100 bets of $50 at -110 on fair coin flips, the expected cost is 100 × $50 × 4.55% = about $227. To overcome it you need to win 52.4% of -110 bets, not 50%. That is the real job of any betting approach: beat the price, margin included. See expected value.
Why props carry more margin
Main NBA and NFL spreads and totals take the most money and are the most competitive markets. Player props are different:
- Books post many prop markets per game, and each takes much less money.
- They are harder to price. Minutes, snap counts and late injury news change the answer quickly.
- Books worry more about bettors who know something they do not, so they price wider and cap limits.
A -120/-110 prop has a 6.93% overround and 6.48% hold, nearly one and a half times the margin of a -110/-110 spread. Some props are offered on one side only, such as many anytime touchdown markets. There you cannot compute the margin at all, because the other price is missing. How wide real props run differs a lot by book; see our measured prop margins and player props explained.
Parlays stack the margin
Each leg of a parlay carries its own margin, and the margins multiply. Two -110 legs pay about +264 instead of the fair +300 for two coin flips, an expected loss of about 8.9%. Three legs pay about +596 instead of +700, about 13.0%. See parlay math or check any ticket with the parlay calculator.
Theoretical vs actual hold
Theoretical hold comes from the prices. Actual hold is what a book reports keeping from all bets over a month or a year. They differ for two reasons. First, action is never perfectly balanced, so results matter: if favorites cover all weekend, the book's actual hold that weekend can be far lower or even negative. Second, the bet mix matters. Parlays and same-game parlays carry much more margin than single bets, so a book whose customers bet more of them reports a higher actual hold. When you read hold figures in sportsbook or state revenue reports, they are actual hold across all bets, not the margin on a single -110 line.
Removing the vig
The method on this page divides each implied probability by S. That is the proportional method and the most common one. Other methods (such as the power or Shin methods) shift a bit more of the margin onto longshots. For two-way markets near even money, the differences are small. Our no-vig calculator uses the proportional method, and closing line value is usually measured against those fair prices.
Common mistakes
- Treating overround and hold as different charges. They are two ways of expressing the same margin.
- Comparing books on one side only. -105 looks cheap until you see -125 on the other side (6.78% overround).
- Assuming the margin is the same on every market. It usually is not, and props often run wider.
- Reading a state's reported hold as the price you pay on one bet.
- Forgetting that parlays multiply the margin.
FAQ
What is the difference between hold and vig?
Vig is the general name for the sportsbook's built-in margin. Overround measures it as how far the implied probabilities add up above 100%. Hold measures it as the share of total stakes the book keeps when action is balanced. For -110 on both sides, the overround is 4.76% and the hold is 4.55%.
How do you calculate hold from two odds?
Convert both prices to implied probabilities and add them. That sum is S. The overround is S - 1 and the hold is 1 - 1/S. For -110/-110, S = 1.0476, so the hold is 1 - 1/1.0476 = 4.55%.
Is 4.55% hold what I lose on every bet?
Roughly, if the fair price is the true chance. When the no-vig probabilities are correct, your expected loss on either side equals the hold: about $4.55 per $100 at -110/-110. Your real result on any bet is a full win or a full loss.
What is theoretical hold vs actual hold?
Theoretical hold is the margin built into the prices, assuming balanced action. Actual hold is what a sportsbook really keeps as a share of all money bet over a period. Actual hold depends on game results and on the bet mix, especially parlays, so it can be higher or lower than the theoretical number.
Why do player props have higher vig?
Props are harder to price, take less money per market and can move sharply on late news. Books cover that risk with wider prices. A -120/-110 prop has a 6.93% overround and a 6.48% hold, compared with 4.76% and 4.55% on a -110/-110 spread.
How can I pay less vig?
Compare prices across books before betting, prefer markets and books with lower measured margins, and avoid stacking margins in parlays. Our sportsbook vig table shows the average margin by book and market.