Research / NFL week 10
NFL week 10 line moves
CAR at NO moved 4 points, from CAR -1.5 to NO -2.5, the biggest spread move of the week. 7 of 14 spreads moved by at least a point between the opening line and now.
Lines are the consensus of six US sportsbooks. Games not yet played show the current line; this page updates every two hours. Last built Nov 13, 2026, 9:19 AM ET.
Spreads: open to now
| Game | Opened | Close / now | Move | Final | Vs close |
|---|
| CAR at NO | CAR -1.5 | NO -2.5 | 4 pts | upcoming | |
| NE at DET | NE -1 | DET -2.5 | 3.5 pts | upcoming | |
| SEA at LV | SEA -3.5 | SEA -6.5 | 3 pts | upcoming | |
| LAR at ARI | LAR -7.5 | LAR -9.5 | 2 pts | upcoming | |
| MIA at IND | IND -2.5 | IND -4 | 1.5 pts | upcoming | |
| JAX at TEN | JAX -9.5 | JAX -10.5 | 1 pt | upcoming | |
| LAC at BAL | BAL -5.5 | BAL -4.5 | 1 pt | upcoming | |
| KC at ATL | KC -3 | KC -3.5 | 0.5 pts | upcoming | |
| SF at DAL | SF -4.5 | SF -4 | 0.5 pts | upcoming | |
| WSH at NYG | NYG -1.5 | NYG -1.5 | – | WSH 24, NYG 21 | WSH covered |
| HOU at CLE | HOU -4.5 | HOU -4.5 | – | upcoming | |
| BUF at NYJ | BUF -7.5 | BUF -7.5 | – | upcoming | |
| MIN at GB | GB -3 | GB -3 | – | upcoming | |
| PIT at CIN | CIN -3.5 | CIN -3.5 | – | upcoming | |
Totals: open to now
| Game | Opened | Close / now | Move | Final total |
|---|
| LAR at ARI | 47.5 | 39.5 | -8 | upcoming |
| WSH at NYG | 45.5 | 40.5 | -5 | 45 over |
| MIA at IND | 42.5 | 38.5 | -4 | upcoming |
| SEA at LV | 43.5 | 40.5 | -3 | upcoming |
| HOU at CLE | 39.5 | 40.5 | +1 | upcoming |
| JAX at TEN | 45.5 | 46.5 | +1 | upcoming |
| CAR at NO | 47.5 | 48.5 | +1 | upcoming |
| KC at ATL | 46.5 | 47.5 | +1 | upcoming |
| SF at DAL | 54.5 | 55.5 | +1 | upcoming |
| PIT at CIN | 48.5 | 49.5 | +1 | upcoming |
| NE at DET | 49.5 | 50 | +0.5 | upcoming |
| MIN at GB | 41.5 | 42 | +0.5 | upcoming |
| BUF at NYJ | 50.5 | 50.5 | – | upcoming |
| LAC at BAL | 38.5 | 38.5 | – | upcoming |
Totals in outdoor games react to wind and rain, see this week's NFL weather. A big spread move
usually means news, most often about the starting quarterback, and the market prices it quickly. Read
why betting lines move.
Where our model and the market disagree
| Game | Home win, market | Home win, our model | Gap | Projected QBs |
|---|
| LAC at BAL | 66% | 46% | -20 | Justin Herbert vs Joe Fagnano |
| SEA at LV | 29% | 41% | +12 | Drew Lock vs Aidan O'Connell |
| BUF at NYJ | 22% | 32% | +10 | Josh Allen vs Geno Smith |
| NE at DET | 58% | 49% | -9 | Drake Maye vs Jared Goff |
| JAX at TEN | 17% | 25% | +7 | Trevor Lawrence vs Cam Ward |
| HOU at CLE | 33% | 39% | +6 | C.J. Stroud vs Deshaun Watson |
| LAR at ARI | 20% | 26% | +5 | Matthew Stafford vs Josh Johnson |
| MIA at IND | 64% | 70% | +5 | Brady Cook vs Daniel Jones |
| KC at ATL | 38% | 43% | +4 | Patrick Mahomes vs Michael Penix Jr. |
| CAR at NO | 55% | 52% | -4 | Bryce Young vs Tyler Shough |
| PIT at CIN | 63% | 59% | -3 | Aaron Rodgers vs Joe Burrow |
| MIN at GB | 58% | 59% | +0 | Carson Wentz vs Jordan Love |
| SF at DAL | 35% | 35% | +0 | Brock Purdy vs Dak Prescott |
The market number is the no-vig win chance from the sportsbooks' moneylines. A gap is a reason to look closer,
not to bet: the market often knows about injuries and lineup news before a model does. See
expected value and closing line value.
Season so far (weeks 3 to 10)
| Record | Share |
|---|
| Favorites against the closing spread | 49-50-5 | 49% |
| Overs against the closing total | 55-49 | 53% |
| Spreads that moved 1+ point: result on the side the line moved to (vs the open) | 20-20 | 50% |
Pushes are the third number and are left out of the share. Pick'em games are left out of the favorites row. These are small samples: a few weeks of games can swing several points either way.
← Week 9 · All research
Research, not betting advice. Responsible gambling.