Research / NFL week 9
NFL week 9 line moves
JAX at BAL moved 12.5 points, from BAL -3 to JAX -9.5, the biggest spread move of the week. 7 of 15 spreads moved by at least a point between the opening line and now.
Lines are the consensus of six US sportsbooks. Games not yet played show the current line; this page updates every two hours. Last built Nov 6, 2026, 9:20 AM ET.
Spreads: open to now
| Game | Opened | Close / now | Move |
|---|
| JAX at BAL | BAL -3 | JAX -9.5 | 12.5 pts |
| ARI at SEA | SEA -11.5 | SEA -8.5 | 3 pts |
| HOU at LAC | HOU -3.5 | HOU -5.5 | 2 pts |
| NYG at PHI | NYG -1.5 | NYG -3 | 1.5 pts |
| DAL at IND | DAL -4.5 | DAL -5.5 | 1 pt |
| LAR at WSH | LAR -5.5 | LAR -4.5 | 1 pt |
| LV at SF | SF -10.5 | SF -9.5 | 1 pt |
| CLE at NO | NO -2.5 | NO -3 | 0.5 pts |
| NYJ at KC | KC -9.5 | KC -10 | 0.5 pts |
| GB at NE | NE -2.5 | NE -3 | 0.5 pts |
| CIN at ATL | CIN -3 | CIN -3 | – |
| DET at MIA | DET -7 | DET -7 | – |
| DEN at CAR | DEN -2.5 | DEN -2.5 | – |
| TB at CHI | CHI -6 | CHI -6 | – |
| BUF at MIN | BUF -3 | BUF -3 | – |
Totals: open to now
| Game | Opened | Close / now | Move |
|---|
| JAX at BAL | 48.5 | 39.5 | -9 |
| ARI at SEA | 44.5 | 39.5 | -5 |
| NYJ at KC | 43.5 | 47.5 | +4 |
| LV at SF | 48.5 | 52 | +3.5 |
| CIN at ATL | 49.5 | 52.5 | +3 |
| DET at MIA | 48.5 | 50.5 | +2 |
| NYG at PHI | 40.5 | 38.5 | -2 |
| HOU at LAC | 42.5 | 40.5 | -2 |
| GB at NE | 47.5 | 45.5 | -2 |
| BUF at MIN | 46.5 | 44.5 | -2 |
| CLE at NO | 43.5 | 42.5 | -1 |
| TB at CHI | 47 | 47.5 | +0.5 |
| DAL at IND | 51.5 | 51.5 | – |
| LAR at WSH | 48.5 | 48.5 | – |
| DEN at CAR | 44.5 | 44.5 | – |
Totals in outdoor games react to wind and rain, see this week's NFL weather. A big spread move
usually means news, most often about the starting quarterback, and the market prices it quickly. Read
why betting lines move.
Where our model and the market disagree
| Game | Home win, market | Home win, our model | Gap | Projected QBs |
|---|
| DAL at IND | 32% | 59% | +27 | Dak Prescott vs Daniel Jones |
| BUF at MIN | 39% | 53% | +14 | Josh Allen vs Kyler Murray |
| DET at MIA | 26% | 37% | +11 | Jared Goff vs Malik Willis |
| JAX at BAL | 21% | 31% | +9 | Trevor Lawrence vs Joe Fagnano |
| NYJ at KC | 80% | 75% | -6 | Geno Smith vs Patrick Mahomes |
| NYG at PHI | 40% | 45% | +5 | Jameis Winston vs Tanner McKee |
| TB at CHI | 71% | 66% | -5 | Baker Mayfield vs Caleb Williams |
| GB at NE | 61% | 65% | +4 | Jordan Love vs Drake Maye |
| CIN at ATL | 40% | 42% | +3 | Joe Burrow vs Michael Penix Jr. |
| ARI at SEA | 78% | 75% | -3 | Jacoby Brissett vs Drew Lock |
| HOU at LAC | 32% | 35% | +2 | C.J. Stroud vs Justin Herbert |
| DEN at CAR | 43% | 40% | -2 | Bo Nix vs Bryce Young |
| CLE at NO | 60% | 59% | -2 | Deshaun Watson vs Tyler Shough |
| LAR at WSH | 33% | 32% | -2 | Matthew Stafford vs Jayden Daniels |
| LV at SF | 80% | 81% | +1 | Kirk Cousins vs Brock Purdy |
The market number is the no-vig win chance from the sportsbooks' moneylines. A gap is a reason to look closer,
not to bet: the market often knows about injuries and lineup news before a model does. See
expected value and closing line value.
Season so far (weeks 3 to 9)
| Record | Share |
|---|
| Favorites against the closing spread | 38-46-4 | 45% |
| Overs against the closing total | 47-41 | 53% |
| Spreads that moved 1+ point: result on the side the line moved to (vs the open) | 17-16 | 52% |
Pushes are the third number and are left out of the share. Pick'em games are left out of the favorites row. These are small samples: a few weeks of games can swing several points either way.
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Research, not betting advice. Responsible gambling.