NFL week 7: the biggest line moves and where our model disagrees
One spread moved by 6.5 points this week, two more moved by 3 points, and our model and the market disagree about the Eagles by 17 points. Here is what moved and what it may mean.
The biggest spread moves
| Game | Opened | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at BAL | BAL -3.5 | BAL +3 | 6.5 pts |
| NYG at HOU | HOU -7.5 | HOU -10.5 | 3 pts |
| LAR at LV | LV +6.5 | LV +3.5 | 3 pts |
| KC at SEA | SEA -1.5 | SEA -3 | 1.5 pts |
The Ravens flipped from a field-goal favorite to a field-goal underdog at home. That kind of swing is almost always news, and it lines up with quarterback Lamar Jackson being listed out with an ankle injury this week. The total dropped with it, from 50.5 to 46, because a backup changes how the offense is expected to score. A move this large is the market pricing a known fact, not an opening for a bettor.
Totals: where the market went
| Game | Opened | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at BAL | 50.5 | 46 | −4.5 |
| GB at DET | 52.5 | 55.5 | +3 |
| DEN at ARI | 45.5 | 43.5 | −2 |
| IND at MIN | 43.5 | 41.5 | −2 |
Packers at Lions is the highest total on the slate at 55.5, and it is played in a dome, so weather is not part of the move. Check our week's weather page for the outdoor games, where wind lowers totals.
Where our model and the market disagree
| Game | Home win, market | Home win, our model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL at PHI | 34% | 51% | +17 |
| CIN at BAL | 42% | 55% | +13 |
| TB at CAR | 58% | 67% | +9 |
| NYG at HOU | 80% | 72% | −8 |
| SF at ATL | 43% | 34% | −9 |
A model and a market disagreeing is a reason to look closer, not to bet. The market prices injuries and news the model may not have yet. In the Ravens game the gap may come from our model reacting more slowly to the quarterback news, which is a common way such a gap appears. See expected value for how to think about it.
Method
Spreads and totals are the opening and current consensus across six US sportsbooks. Win chances are the market's no-vig probability and our own projection. Numbers are a snapshot from Sunday morning, October 25, and the lines have since changed. This is research, not a betting recommendation. Responsible gambling.