NFL / Matchups / Dolphins vs Patriots

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Week 8, Sunday, November 1 at 4:25 PM ET. Our model gives Dolphins a 29% chance, projecting MIA +7.4. The market line is MIA +8.5 with a total of 44.5.

29%

Dolphins win chance, our model

21%

Dolphins win chance, market (4 books)

+8 pts

Model minus market

A gap between the model and the market is a reason to look closer, not a signal to bet. See expected value.

Line movement

	Opened	Now
Spread (MIA)	+8.5	+8.5
Total	44	44.5

Consensus of 4 sportsbooks. Read how lines move.

Weather

Miami Gardens, FL. No forecast yet. See the week's forecasts.

Team stats per game

	Record	Points	Allowed	Pass yds	Rush yds	Off EPA	Def EPA
Patriots	4-3	22.9 #17	20.4 #9	261.4	121.9	-0.01	+0.02
Dolphins	0-5	14.0 #32	26.4 #24	169.8	126.6	-0.13	+0.01

EPA is expected points added per play. For the defense, lower is better.

New England Patriots: recent games

Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
at Chicago Bears	L 24-30	+3 missed	50.5 over
vs New York Jets	W 26-19	-7	42.5 over
vs Las Vegas Raiders	W 45-17	-3.5 covered	45.5 over
at Buffalo Bills	W 29-26	+7 covered	49.5 over
at Jacksonville Jaguars	L 6-35	+3 missed	46.5 under

Miami Dolphins: recent games

Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
vs Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-31	+7	44.5 over
at Minnesota Vikings	L 10-15	+10 covered	38.5 under
vs Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-24	+9.5 missed	45 under
at San Francisco 49ers	L 13-35	–	–
at Las Vegas Raiders	L 13-27	–	–

Injury report

Compiled from official league injury reports and beat reporters. Statuses change often and some entries are reports, not confirmations. Check the team's final report before game time.

Team	Player	Status	Injury
NE	Behren Morton QB	Out	–
NE	Ben Brown C	Out	knee
NE	Carlton Davis III CB	Out	neck
NE	Channing Canada CB	Out	hamstring
NE	Joshua Farmer DT	Out	–
NE	Karon Prunty CB	Out	hamstring
NE	Alijah Vera-Tucker G	IR	hamstring
NE	Bryce Baringer P	IR	undisclosed
MIA	Reese Taylor CB	Out	quadriceps
MIA	Robert Beal Jr. DE	Doubtful	–
MIA	Willie Gay Jr. LB	Questionable	–
MIA	Cole Turner TE	IR	undisclosed
MIA	Darrell Baker Jr. CB	PUP-R	undisclosed
MIA	De'Von Achane RB	IR	knee
MIA	Rene Konga DT	IR	–
MIA	Ronnie Harrison Jr. LB	IR	hamstring

Previous meetings

Season	Week	Game	Score
2025	18	MIA at NE	10-38
2025	2	NE at MIA	33-27
2024	12	NE at MIA	15-34
2024	5	MIA at NE	15-10
2023	8	NE at MIA	17-31

This season: Dolphins vs Patriots

Week	Date	Game	Result
8	Nov 1, 2026	Patriots at Dolphins	Upcoming
18	Jan 10, 2027	Dolphins at Patriots	Upcoming

Team snapshots

Team	Record	PF	PA
Miami Dolphins	0-5	70	132
New England Patriots	4-3	160	143

point spreads · this week's weather · compare sportsbooks

Source: Oddsloft projections and archived sportsbook prices. Page built Oct 25, 2026, 9:18 AM ET. Information only, not betting advice. Responsible gambling.